Lyra projects that worldwide digital photo prints revenue will peak in 2010, at just more than $16 billion (see figure), then decline gradually, despite the continued increase in the number of prints being made. The revenue shown in the figure below is for conventional photo prints and does not include photo gift items or photo books. Revenue is allocated according to where the customer pays for printing. For images submitted online and picked up at a retail location, payment is generally made online, when the order is placed. For online and in-store printing, revenue is based on the price consumers pay for the finished prints. For home photo printing, revenue is based on the price consumers pay to purchase the printing supplies (i.e., ink and paper, or dye thermal ribbon and paper).
Photo Capture and Prints Forecast
Lyra breaks its Digital Capture and Prints forecast into seven segments, each focusing on one part of the process by which photos are captured, saved, and printed. The forecast starts with estimates of the installed base of capture devices (digital cameras and camera phones), then estimates the number of photos captured by these devices and then the number of captured photos that are saved. Finally, the forecast estimates how many saved photos are printed.
Because there are many ways to break out the photo prints data, the photo prints forecast is broken into four segments: photo prints by image source, photo prints by channel (home or retail), photo prints by print size, and finally, photo prints by revenue.
The projected revenue decline from 2010 to 2011 is the result of reductions in average prices per print. Such price reductions have already been occurring, and we anticipate that they will continue through the forecast period in response to intensifying competitive pressures. We project that by 2011, the worldwide average price of a 4 × 6-inch digital photo print-from all printing channels combined-will be down to 16 cents, less than half of what it was in 2004. |
